I've been following with keen interest the news of the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico, and it's reported spread; I have a personal connection with swine flu.
In 1976 I was a young newspaper reporter on a community "shopper" newspaper, the Meramec Community Press. An outbreak of swine flu at Fort Dix had alarmed the CDC; the strain seemed very mutated from the original H1N1 virus and suggested a potential for a pandemic. At the time it was thought that the 1918 pandemic was a swine-flu mutation. In 1976 we did not have the genetic science to exhume 1918 victims and determine the exact strain-that science came a bit later and it was proven to be an avian flu strain that caused that devastating outbreak. At any rate, the government decided it was urgent to create a vaccine and distribute it to the American populace as a preventitive. A crash program was implemented and the CDC was charged with eliciting the support of the press in getting the word out. And that is where my story comes in. I was assigned that story by my editor, and so began educating myself on influenza and the means proposed to forestall epidemics and pandemics.
I learned that influenza viruses of all types ongoingly mutate; most of these mutations are of insignificant impact, but occasionally a mutation occurs that is sufficient to render previously established antibodies in the organism ineffective at staving off infection. This mutation then has the potential for wide-spread impact, an "epidemic" is possible. If an epidemic spreads very widely, it becomes a "pandemic". This happened in 1918. The scope of the 1918 pandemic was bolstered by a couple of compounding dynamics: there was a world war going on, which created conditions of great crowding in many areas-military bases, artificially densified urban centers, transportaion depots, etc. Too, there was a great movement of people ongoing-soldiers moving between bases and depots, refugees travelling long distances to escape the war and it's effects, or moving from one part of the country to another for war-related industry. Many dynamics coincided to create a sort of "perfect storm" for viral transmission. I believe the U.S. alone suffered something like half-a-million cases. Estimates world-wide range from 20 to 100 million cases.
So, in 1976 the CDC and the government regarded this situation very seriously. A public-vaccination program was implemented, with a target stockpile of 200 million vaccine doses. Achieving this goal was confounded by the discovery that the vaccine-production process was incapable of producing the kind of two-for-one vaccine yields previous vaccine processes (like that for polio) yielded. In essence, the operation was only capable of 50% production efficiency. Nonetheless, a public campaign promoting widespread implementation was begun.
I spoke with several CDC press liaissons in the following weeks, and recieved a ton of literature; I spent many, many nights poring over the materials and trying to decide exactly how to boil it all down for public consumption. Too, it was not a foregone conclusion that the entire press establishment was in support of such a crash-course of vaccine development and dissemination. I had plenty of press corps colleagues opposed to the program. Ultimately, I decided to support the CDC's effort, with the approval of my editor and indeed the direct support of our publisher. One of only three meetings I had with him in my time on the staff resulted in my being appointed lead-writer on the subject for the whole chain of papers. Heady stuff for an 18 year old.
As the approved vaccine became available, the CDC decided to capitalize on favorable press where such existed, and some of the very first stocks were shipped to the Department of Public Health in my little community, Jefferson County, Missouri. Over the course of my three article story I had made friends with that staff, and they invited me down to witness the arrival. The director of the department opened the shipping container and asked me if I wanted to go first.
So I did, and the CDC staffer who'd accompanied the shipment told me I was likely one of the first people west of the Mississippi to recieve the inoculation. I was given the standard pamphelet advising about possible side-effect symptoms I might experience, and I took pictures of all the staff getting their shots. Then I went home to write my final article.
I'm sorry if this will disappoint, but I experienced no side effects-no aches or pains, no low-grade fever, nothing. I could've been given a placebo for all I knew. And no epidemic, much less pandemic, occurred. Only about 24% of the nation's population had recieved the vaccination by the time the government called it all off.
Interestingly, this pretty much marks the advent of the public influenza-vaccination paradigm that exists today. I think the CDC and the government were unwilling to dismantle the instrumentality they'd created to distribute the swine-flu vaccine. Every year, the CDC cooks up a vaccine representing the most-likely strains expected to spread during the flu season, and everyone's welcome to get the shot.
Before we proceed to my final thoughts, however, we should take note of a few important facts:
-the vaccination cannot encompass every strain in circulation. Much study has shown that, to contain a significant portion of the killed-virus of each target strain in a single dose, the maximum number of strains covered can't exceed 5, and indeed, usually only covers 2-3.
-each strain represented is a specific mutation, and may provide only small protection should that strain further mutate.
-epidemiologists and other immune-system researchers are quick to point out that the human organism has at any given time somewhat finite resources to devote to producing antibodies-our bodies cannot just devote themselves entirely to producing antibodies against every viral possibility in the world.
And therein lies the crux of my biscuit: I haven't had a flu shot since that innoculation in 1976. One of the epidemiologists I spoke with a great deal had impressed me with a statement I still think about; to his way of thinking, he said, it was better to be ongoingly exposed to the great realm of potential viral mutation and, by natural exposure to varying iterations of viruses, develop a base library of antibodies most likely to suppress the strains most often encountered, and to be predilected to the most recently encountered mutations of those strains. He pointed out that the original proposition for the innoculation campaign had been to only target those most likely to be unable to recover from sickness: the very old, the very young, and those with compromised immune systems. This ideal seems lost, although it's still part of the rhetoric in the press releases each flu season even today.
So there's lots of meat to chew on here. I suppose if a "Captain Trips" virus pops out of the jungle, or escapes some weapons lab, or just percolates up out of nowhere, there won't be a lot anyone can do about it. Too, another recent epidemiologist acquaintance advises me that influenza vaccination only has an expected efficacy for about 5-12 years. She notes, too, that that is merely an informed guess-ultimately, the coding for a particular antibody (once learned) should be permanently in the body's "library", the real question being whether the particular body will recognize the latest iteration of mutation and start producing the best-fitting antibody.
Finally, I should note that since 1976 I have had two occasions of significant flu-one in 1984 and one just last year. Otherwise I seem to float through the flu season experiencing nothing greater than run-of-the-mill colds and the like.
I wonder how effective that old H1N1 vaccine really was? I wonder what the coming weeks will bring?
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Friday, April 24, 2009
I can't get a....quanta of Satisfaction....
I spent a good part of my morning thinking about satisfaction. We had a particularly trying morning at the school, problems with websites and computers and switches etc. etc. I was pretty frustrated by the time of my usual morning walk, so as I walked my thoughts naturally gravitated to frustration and satisfaction.
It occurred to me that I walk in and solve problems almost immediately all the time; that gives me some satisfaction. And then there are problems that come up that never really get resolved; that makes me frustrated. It's funny, but the easily obtained satisfactions don't seem to balance out the frustrations.
Now, it's true, when I solve a frustrating problem after long periods of effort, THAT satisfaction is more is more gratifying than those quick and immediate resolutions. But though there's been quite a few of those, even the remembrance of those little victories doesn't weigh up enough to offset those ongoing frustrations.
I realize it's all a matter of perspective, and if I really give myself some credit the victories and the losses all really do kind of even out; still, I suppose it's part of my nature to disinclined to accept defeat easily.
Nothing wrong with that in my eyes.
It occurred to me that I walk in and solve problems almost immediately all the time; that gives me some satisfaction. And then there are problems that come up that never really get resolved; that makes me frustrated. It's funny, but the easily obtained satisfactions don't seem to balance out the frustrations.
Now, it's true, when I solve a frustrating problem after long periods of effort, THAT satisfaction is more is more gratifying than those quick and immediate resolutions. But though there's been quite a few of those, even the remembrance of those little victories doesn't weigh up enough to offset those ongoing frustrations.
I realize it's all a matter of perspective, and if I really give myself some credit the victories and the losses all really do kind of even out; still, I suppose it's part of my nature to disinclined to accept defeat easily.
Nothing wrong with that in my eyes.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
A few thoughts on another topic...intermission, so to speak
In preparation for our June 6th remembrances, the roomie and I have been watching "Band of Brothers" again. We've both been through the set a few times, so it's not like a new revelation.
I'm always in awe of the real people these stories represent. War ceased being any kind of "noble enterprise" about the time gunpowder hit the scene, and impersonal death at a distance became the new paradigm. The commitment men and women in combat show to each other has so much impact on me. Thirty-three years ago I declined to participate in the military milieu, mostly because I could not accept being placed in a position where refusing to obey someone who's logic I did not agree with could be a federal offense. In the private sector, if my boss was an idiot who tried to make me do something unwise, I could just quit. Can't do that on the field of battle.
These folks were working in a different environment; I believe the fight against the Axis powers in WWII was a worthy fight against a dictatorial, expansionistic regime, committing atrocities we hardly knew of. So many answered that call, to provide the ultimate sacrifice; which sacrifice, in the heat of battle, was not made so much to great ideals as it was to the preservation of their comrade's lives.
I am so humbled by that.
I know, too, that many of those adversarial combatants were themselves victims of their regimes-many did not fully understand what their governments were trying to accomplish. Many were just trying to do their duty as they saw appropriate. That combatants on both sides have been able to reconcile their roles between themselves proves their genuine humanity; I only hope we can find that reconciliation between the combatants still engaged in the conflicts of today.
The challenges that face us as a species, to assure our survival, far outweigh our ideological differences...I only hope we all realize that and act upon it, before it becomes too late.
I'm always in awe of the real people these stories represent. War ceased being any kind of "noble enterprise" about the time gunpowder hit the scene, and impersonal death at a distance became the new paradigm. The commitment men and women in combat show to each other has so much impact on me. Thirty-three years ago I declined to participate in the military milieu, mostly because I could not accept being placed in a position where refusing to obey someone who's logic I did not agree with could be a federal offense. In the private sector, if my boss was an idiot who tried to make me do something unwise, I could just quit. Can't do that on the field of battle.
These folks were working in a different environment; I believe the fight against the Axis powers in WWII was a worthy fight against a dictatorial, expansionistic regime, committing atrocities we hardly knew of. So many answered that call, to provide the ultimate sacrifice; which sacrifice, in the heat of battle, was not made so much to great ideals as it was to the preservation of their comrade's lives.
I am so humbled by that.
I know, too, that many of those adversarial combatants were themselves victims of their regimes-many did not fully understand what their governments were trying to accomplish. Many were just trying to do their duty as they saw appropriate. That combatants on both sides have been able to reconcile their roles between themselves proves their genuine humanity; I only hope we can find that reconciliation between the combatants still engaged in the conflicts of today.
The challenges that face us as a species, to assure our survival, far outweigh our ideological differences...I only hope we all realize that and act upon it, before it becomes too late.
Some Damned Thing-the beginning
I have had a lifelong fascination with the unexplained and the unexplainable, the unknown and the unknowable. I’ve always been fascinated by the difference between the elements, i.e. can the unknown become known, or is it truly and completely unknowable? Can the unexplained ultimately be explained? It seems to me that there are, in Universe, some things which are totally unavailable to human apprehension. Since our conceptual ability is limited by our physical capacity, our truly vast brainpower is obviously still ultimately inadequate to hold the totality of reality. Though our brain’s capacity is seemingly vast, Universe is undeniably even more vast. So, I don’t find it implausible that we might encounter things that cannot be fully known; that being said, it also stands to reason that we might encounter things that could be known but will require a great deal of effort, a long and arduous pursuit, to understand with any degree of completeness. We are remiss when we too lightly dismiss a puzzling event as inexplicable; it behooves us to make great effort before such dismissal. Likewise, we cannot rush to employ Occam’s Razor too quickly, especially if we find ourselves restricting our attention to only certain details in order for the Razor to satisfy.
For those unfamiliar, Occam’s Razor is the philosophical proposition that, all things being considered being equal, the simplest explanation is usually correct. That’s a bit of a gloss; actually, Occam proposed that the simplest explanation was the most likely. A fine distinction.
So I have prefaced this consideration of an enigma with a bit of my personal inclinations, and a little discourse on human capacity and a powerful philosophical and investigative tool. I hope I have not bored you.
The question at hand is popularly known as the Dyatlov’s Pass Incident; I am amazed that it has taken so long for this to come up on my radar. I came across it when idly surfing the ‘web, just poking around looking for enigmas to entertain myself with. Here is the wikipedia link, a good introduction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyatlov_Pass
I have followed every link in this article, even those in Russian, which I unfortunately cannot read. I mined those entries for maps and pictures, and there are some things buried in them not found in English language articles.
So I have chewed on this enigma for about a week and half so far, and find I cannot go long before my mind returns again to puzzle over the evidence and try to consider all possible scenarios. I have spent hours reading every thread of discussion and considered every proposal presented and as of today still feel the best explication I can believe is that Some Damned Thing happened to these people, Some Damned Thing set into motion actions which are difficult to understand and which seemingly contradict themselves within any particular proposition.
(Author’s note: I capitalize Some Damned Thing to suggest the distinction made by Charles Hoy Fort, to characterize a mysterious agency; I will probably start abbreviating it as SDT, for the sake of brevity and ease my poor typing fingers.)
This post thus prefaces what I hope will be a lively discussion. I will be following up with further posts to consider the various scenarios proposed and their ability, or lack, to satisfy Occam’s Razor. At this point, my Razor proposition is:
“Nine people died under mysterious circumstances; there are things in Universe beyond our ken; ergo Some Damned Thing happened on Feb. 2, 1959 in the area now known as Dyatlov’s Pass.”
It remains to see if we can render this SDT knowable.
For those unfamiliar, Occam’s Razor is the philosophical proposition that, all things being considered being equal, the simplest explanation is usually correct. That’s a bit of a gloss; actually, Occam proposed that the simplest explanation was the most likely. A fine distinction.
So I have prefaced this consideration of an enigma with a bit of my personal inclinations, and a little discourse on human capacity and a powerful philosophical and investigative tool. I hope I have not bored you.
The question at hand is popularly known as the Dyatlov’s Pass Incident; I am amazed that it has taken so long for this to come up on my radar. I came across it when idly surfing the ‘web, just poking around looking for enigmas to entertain myself with. Here is the wikipedia link, a good introduction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyatlov_Pass
I have followed every link in this article, even those in Russian, which I unfortunately cannot read. I mined those entries for maps and pictures, and there are some things buried in them not found in English language articles.
So I have chewed on this enigma for about a week and half so far, and find I cannot go long before my mind returns again to puzzle over the evidence and try to consider all possible scenarios. I have spent hours reading every thread of discussion and considered every proposal presented and as of today still feel the best explication I can believe is that Some Damned Thing happened to these people, Some Damned Thing set into motion actions which are difficult to understand and which seemingly contradict themselves within any particular proposition.
(Author’s note: I capitalize Some Damned Thing to suggest the distinction made by Charles Hoy Fort, to characterize a mysterious agency; I will probably start abbreviating it as SDT, for the sake of brevity and ease my poor typing fingers.)
This post thus prefaces what I hope will be a lively discussion. I will be following up with further posts to consider the various scenarios proposed and their ability, or lack, to satisfy Occam’s Razor. At this point, my Razor proposition is:
“Nine people died under mysterious circumstances; there are things in Universe beyond our ken; ergo Some Damned Thing happened on Feb. 2, 1959 in the area now known as Dyatlov’s Pass.”
It remains to see if we can render this SDT knowable.
Friday, April 17, 2009
It's a Paradigm shift, It's a Paradigm shift..
It's a put-on...(you're reading this and hearing Pete Townsend's "Eminence Front" in the background).
I realized part of my blogging issue is that I don't care to compose on the fly much. I'd rather work in a WP and then paste it in. Mostly because I can't post to my blog from work, but there's lots of time to write AT work. So, I got all snuggly with a flash-drive to move things back and forth and was all prepared to really start writing this week and THEN ALL HELL BROKE LOOSE. Figures.
There's a couple of things that have been on my mind of late and I want to talk about them here, but that's going to need a bit of prefacing, so be prepared for a long piece with some links to follow, without which NONE of it will make sense. Let's just say I'm off on one of my "weird-damned-things" pursuits...those who know me well will tell you, "sometimes he gets onto something and will just not LET IT GO."
And that's pretty much true...I can get a little obsessed with the unknown, and the unknowable.
You've been warned.
Want a taste? Go here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyatlov_Pass
and thanks to all who responded;
I have gotten bent,
and the mayonnaise was good.
I realized part of my blogging issue is that I don't care to compose on the fly much. I'd rather work in a WP and then paste it in. Mostly because I can't post to my blog from work, but there's lots of time to write AT work. So, I got all snuggly with a flash-drive to move things back and forth and was all prepared to really start writing this week and THEN ALL HELL BROKE LOOSE. Figures.
There's a couple of things that have been on my mind of late and I want to talk about them here, but that's going to need a bit of prefacing, so be prepared for a long piece with some links to follow, without which NONE of it will make sense. Let's just say I'm off on one of my "weird-damned-things" pursuits...those who know me well will tell you, "sometimes he gets onto something and will just not LET IT GO."
And that's pretty much true...I can get a little obsessed with the unknown, and the unknowable.
You've been warned.
Want a taste? Go here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyatlov_Pass
and thanks to all who responded;
I have gotten bent,
and the mayonnaise was good.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Is anybody out there?
Just nod if you can hear me...
Actually, leave me a comment. I know "following" can be a bit labor-intensive if you don't have a gmail account, but I just want to get a little feedback so's I can know whether or not to feel guilty if I pass on writing here at times.
So leave a comment: "get bent" would work just fine, or "Mayonnaise" is good, too.
I hear, now and again, that someone went to my blog, but no message=I don't know, at all, at all.
So take a sec and drop me a comment.
Actually, leave me a comment. I know "following" can be a bit labor-intensive if you don't have a gmail account, but I just want to get a little feedback so's I can know whether or not to feel guilty if I pass on writing here at times.
So leave a comment: "get bent" would work just fine, or "Mayonnaise" is good, too.
I hear, now and again, that someone went to my blog, but no message=I don't know, at all, at all.
So take a sec and drop me a comment.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Some things cannot be fully expressed
This is really difficult. I'm trying to reconcile some temporal discrepancies in my personal history, and even after a couple of phone calls, I'm sort of at odds in getting everything to line up. Have I been in two places at once? More later.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Holy Moly what a world
It has certainly been an interesting week! For over a month the roommate has been driving my van whilst saving up money to get his car's transmission fixed. Then, startlingly, as we prepped it for the drive up to the transmission shop (forward gears worked, but no reverse) we discovered that our previous efforts at recovery had been a tad deficient-adding a couple more quarts of tranny fluid brought reverse back to life!
UNCANNY! We will still have to monitor the situation-there seems to be a bit of a leak-but this changes everything for him! And I've proposed that he and his girlfriend learn to drive a standard (stick) transmission; once I learned how, I've tried to always buy a stick. There's just so many advantages, not the least that repairs are invariably cheaper! And that will certainly broaden his options for eventually replacing his aging car.
I've been a bit slack about posting here-probably 'cause I'm spending a lot of time at alt.slack! A usenet group for the Subgenius in all of us. And a terrific source for hearing about great Badfilms, weird news, and general snarky social commentary.
UNCANNY! We will still have to monitor the situation-there seems to be a bit of a leak-but this changes everything for him! And I've proposed that he and his girlfriend learn to drive a standard (stick) transmission; once I learned how, I've tried to always buy a stick. There's just so many advantages, not the least that repairs are invariably cheaper! And that will certainly broaden his options for eventually replacing his aging car.
I've been a bit slack about posting here-probably 'cause I'm spending a lot of time at alt.slack! A usenet group for the Subgenius in all of us. And a terrific source for hearing about great Badfilms, weird news, and general snarky social commentary.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Bad Luck Streak in Dancing School
Well, Life sure keeps things interesting! Had major car problems on both my and the roommate's part and they suddenly resolved without real effort. More later.
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